Will NCT06506955 (Taiho Oncology, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-30
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
66%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06506955 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 30 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 2 October 2026: NCT06506955 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Taiho Oncology, Inc., with 15 participants. Started 2024-10; announced primary completion 2027-04-30, announced study completion 2027-04-30 — announced to the month only. Record last updated 2026-07-28. The date under test is 2027-04-30. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06506955
What pushes it up
- The trial has already transitioned to ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with an enrollment of 15, indicating the major risk factor for trial delay—slow patient accrual—has been overcome [tier 1].
- With less than seven months remaining until the April 2027 study completion target, there is a relatively narrow window for unexpected timeline extensions [tier 1].
- Taiho Oncology is an established sponsor actively updating its registry record as recently as July 2026, reducing the likelihood of registry abandonment or 'Unknown' status lapses [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Post-enrollment follow-up, biomarker analysis, data cleaning, or regulatory closeout frequently cause trial completion dates to be pushed back by a few months [tier 1].
- The resolution criteria require the date to remain on or before 30 April 2027; any administrative pushback into May 2027 or later triggers a negative resolution [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether follow-up and final data collection for the 15 enrolled patients proceed on schedule without requiring a sponsor timeline extension.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-30 |
| Base rate | 60% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 70 (spread 8 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-18 12:08 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-18 12:08 66% 50 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial has already transitioned to ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with an enrollment of 15, indicating the major risk factor for trial delay—slow patient accrual—has been overcome [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. With less than seven months remaining until the April 2027 study completion target, there is a relatively narrow window for unexpected timeline extensions [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Taiho Oncology is an established sponsor actively updating its registry record as recently as July 2026, reducing the likelihood of registry abandonment or 'Unknown' status lapses [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Post-enrollment follow-up, biomarker analysis, data cleaning, or regulatory closeout frequently cause trial completion dates to be pushed back by a few months [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. The resolution criteria require the date to remain on or before 30 April 2027; any administrative pushback into May 2027 or later triggers a negative resolution [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether follow-up and final data collection for the 15 enrolled patients proceed on schedule without requiring a sponsor timeline extension.
2026-10-03 09:02 68% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. No change in the ClinicalTrials.gov record and the study remains ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, indicating no known delay or termination [1]
- What would move this number most. Whether the trial will experience a delay or termination before 30 May 2027.