Will NCT06388200 (Ocugen) still show a study completion date of 12 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 14 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-14
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
74%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06388200 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 14 March 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 12 February 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 3 October 2026: NCT06388200 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Ocugen, with 140 participants. Started 2024-06; announced primary completion 2027-02-12, announced study completion 2027-02-12. Record last updated 2026-07-31. The date under test is 2027-02-12. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06388200
What pushes it up
- The trial status is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with full actual enrollment (140 participants) confirmed, eliminating patient recruitment risk [tier 1].
- With less than four months remaining until the 12 February 2027 target date, the window for unexpected scheduling revisions is narrow [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- The primary completion date and study completion date are set to the exact same day (2027-02-12), leaving zero buffer for patient follow-up, monitoring visits, or data management before the target is missed [tier 1].
- Sponsors frequently update completion dates backwards by a few months to accommodate final visit schedules or administrative closeouts [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether all 140 participants finish their protocol-specified follow-up visits on schedule without requiring an extension to the study completion date.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-14 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 63 · 74 · 78 (spread 15 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-17 09:14 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-17 09:14 74% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial status is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with full actual enrollment (140 participants) confirmed, eliminating patient recruitment risk [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. With less than four months remaining until the 12 February 2027 target date, the window for unexpected scheduling revisions is narrow [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. The primary completion date and study completion date are set to the exact same day (2027-02-12), leaving zero buffer for patient follow-up, monitoring visits, or data management before the target is missed [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Sponsors frequently update completion dates backwards by a few months to accommodate final visit schedules or administrative closeouts [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether all 140 participants finish their protocol-specified follow-up visits on schedule without requiring an extension to the study completion date.
2026-10-03 09:02 85% 0 article(s) on file · qwen/qwen3.8-27b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. The study is currently ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with 140 participants enrolled, indicating the recruitment phase is complete and the study is in the data collection/analysis phase [1].
- What pushes it up. The record was last updated on 2026-07-31, suggesting the sponsor is actively maintaining the registration and has not recently signaled delays [1].
- What pushes it down. The study is sponsored by Ocugen, a small-cap biotech, which carries a higher risk of financial distress or operational delays compared to large pharmaceutical companies [3].
- What pushes it down. No recent news confirms the study is on track, leaving the possibility of undisclosed delays or status changes (e.g., suspension) unverified [4].
- What would move this number most. Whether Ocugen will face financial or operational issues in the next 5 months that would force a suspension or delay of the final data analysis.