Will NCT06260163 (Janssen Research & Development, LLC) still show a study completion date of 28 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 28 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-28
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
80%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06260163 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 28 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 28 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 1 October 2026: NCT06260163 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Janssen Research & Development, LLC, with 112 participants. Started 2024-01; announced primary completion 2027-02-10, announced study completion 2027-04-28. Record last updated 2026-09-25. The date under test is 2027-04-28. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06260163
What pushes it up
- The trial has reached ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING status with actual enrollment of 112 participants already achieved [1].
- The sponsor (Janssen Research & Development, LLC) recently verified the study status in September 2026, confirming the 28 April 2027 completion date [1].
What pushes it down
- Follow-up, data collection, or safety monitoring delays during active treatment can still cause study completion dates to be pushed back [1].
- Any transition of overall status to Terminated, Suspended, or Unknown would cause resolution to No [1].
What would move this number most
Whether patient follow-up and data collection proceed without operational delays or safety holds prior to April 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-28 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 75 · 85 (spread 10 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-15 12:15 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-15 12:15 80% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial has reached ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING status with actual enrollment of 112 participants already achieved [1].
- What pushes it up. The sponsor (Janssen Research & Development, LLC) recently verified the study status in September 2026, confirming the 28 April 2027 completion date [1].
- What pushes it down. Follow-up, data collection, or safety monitoring delays during active treatment can still cause study completion dates to be pushed back [1].
- What pushes it down. Any transition of overall status to Terminated, Suspended, or Unknown would cause resolution to No [1].
- What would move this number most. Whether patient follow-up and data collection proceed without operational delays or safety holds prior to April 2027.
2026-10-01 12:13 66% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. No evidence of a change in the study completion date since the last update on 25 September 2026 (tier 1).
- What would move this number most. Whether the trial will experience a delay or early completion before 28 May 2027.