Will NCT05852938 (Novartis Pharmaceuticals) still show a study completion date of 25 January 2028 or earlier when checked on 24 February 2028?
deadline 2028-02-24
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
71%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT05852938 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 24 February 2028, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 25 January 2028 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 14 November 2026: NCT05852938 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Novartis Pharmaceuticals, with 383 participants. Started 2023-07; announced primary completion 2027-08-10, announced study completion 2028-01-25. Record last updated 2026-04-01. The date under test is 2028-01-25. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05852938
What pushes it up
- The study reached full actual enrollment (383 participants) and transitioned to ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING status, eliminating recruitment delays as a risk factor [tier 1].
- Novartis is a well-resourced major pharmaceutical sponsor with high operational execution capacity [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Operational or administrative delays during patient follow-up and database lock frequently cause trial completion dates to slip by several weeks or months [tier 1].
- The resolution criteria require the date to remain strictly on or before 25 January 2028, leaving a tight margin of less than a month before the evaluation date [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether patient follow-up or database locking procedures experience operational delays in late 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2028-02-24 |
| Base rate | 65% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 70 · 72 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-14 09:06 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consulted