Will NCT05063162 (UCB Biopharma SRL) still show a study completion date of 1 July 2027 or earlier when checked on 31 July 2027?
deadline 2027-07-31
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
78%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT05063162 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 31 July 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 July 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 2 October 2026: NCT05063162 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by UCB Biopharma SRL, with 113 participants. Started 2022-02; announced primary completion 2027-05-06, announced study completion 2027-07-01. Record last updated 2026-09-25. The date under test is 2027-07-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05063162
What pushes it up
- The trial status is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with an actual enrollment of 113 patients already completed [tier 1].
- The sponsor recently verified and updated the study status in October 2026, re-confirming the primary completion date of May 2027 and study completion date of July 1, 2027 [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Follow-up visits, data lock delays, or protocol amendments during the remaining 8.5 months could still push the completion date past July 1, 2027 [tier 1].
- Any unexpected study termination, suspension, or failure to maintain the record before July 2027 triggers a negative resolution under the rules [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether patient follow-up or final data lock experiences minor operational delays that push the study completion date back even by a few weeks.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-07-31 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 73 · 82 (spread 9 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-18 12:09 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-18 12:09 78% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial status is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with an actual enrollment of 113 patients already completed [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. The sponsor recently verified and updated the study status in October 2026, re-confirming the primary completion date of May 2027 and study completion date of July 1, 2027 [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Follow-up visits, data lock delays, or protocol amendments during the remaining 8.5 months could still push the completion date past July 1, 2027 [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Any unexpected study termination, suspension, or failure to maintain the record before July 2027 triggers a negative resolution under the rules [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether patient follow-up or final data lock experiences minor operational delays that push the study completion date back even by a few weeks.
2026-10-03 09:01 70% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. No changes to the study completion date have been made since the last record update, and no negative news or delays have been reported, suggesting the date is likely to remain unchanged [1]
- What pushes it down. The record has not been updated for over a month, and clinical trials often experience delays that push completion dates back, which could reduce the likelihood of the date staying the same [1]
- What would move this number most. Whether the trial encounters any operational or regulatory delays that would push the completion date beyond 1 July 2027