Will NCT04906395 (Tolmar Inc.) still show a study completion date of 30 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 30 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-30
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
83%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT04906395 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 December 2026, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 30 November 2026 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used.
Verified starting state
As of 30 September 2026: NCT04906395 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Tolmar Inc., with 250 participants. Started 2021-07; announced primary completion 2026-11-30, announced study completion 2026-11-30. Record last updated 2026-09-29. The date under test is 2026-11-30. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04906395
What pushes it up
- The ClinicalTrials.gov record was updated very recently on September 29, 2026, re-confirming active, non-recruiting status with a completion date of November 30, 2026 [17].
- Enrollment is complete with 250 participants, meaning recruitment delays will not impact the final completion timeline [17].
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials often experience minor reporting or final data collection delays near study end, which can push dates back [17].
- If the sponsor fails to update the study status promptly after November 30, 2026, ClinicalTrials.gov could mark the status as UNKNOWN, which resolves as a 'No' under the resolution criteria [17].
What would move this number most
Whether Tolmar Inc. completes all protocol requirements on schedule in November 2026 and submits the record update before the December 30, 2026 deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-30 |
| Base rate | 80% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 82 · 84 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-09 14:02 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-09 14:02 83% 35 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The ClinicalTrials.gov record was updated very recently on September 29, 2026, re-confirming active, non-recruiting status with a completion date of November 30, 2026 [17].
- What pushes it up. Enrollment is complete with 250 participants, meaning recruitment delays will not impact the final completion timeline [17].
- What pushes it down. Clinical trials often experience minor reporting or final data collection delays near study end, which can push dates back [17].
- What pushes it down. If the sponsor fails to update the study status promptly after November 30, 2026, ClinicalTrials.gov could mark the status as UNKNOWN, which resolves as a 'No' under the resolution criteria [17].
- What would move this number most. Whether Tolmar Inc. completes all protocol requirements on schedule in November 2026 and submits the record update before the December 30, 2026 deadline.
2026-09-30 14:03 70% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. The registry entry was updated on 2026‑09‑29 and shows ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with a study completion date of 2026‑11‑30, indicating a recent confirmation of the timeline. [1]
- What would move this number most. Any unforeseen operational or regulatory issue between now and the end of November could cause a delay.