Will NCT04368806 (Nature Cell Co. Ltd.) still show a study completion date of 7 August 2027 or earlier when checked on 6 September 2027?
deadline 2027-09-06
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
68%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT04368806 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 6 September 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 7 August 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 9 November 2026: NCT04368806 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Nature Cell Co. Ltd., with 173 participants. Started 2021-05; announced primary completion 2027-08-06, announced study completion 2027-08-07. Record last updated 2026-08-03. The date under test is 2027-08-07. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04368806
What pushes it up
- Enrollment is confirmed as complete with 173 participants, which removes the most common source of clinical trial delays [1].
- The study status was verified by the sponsor as recently as July 2026, suggesting active oversight of the timeline [1].
- The study is already in the follow-up or analysis phase ('ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING'), which is generally more predictable than the recruitment phase [1].
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials often encounter minor administrative or data-cleaning delays that can push the official completion date back by weeks or months [1].
- The resolution criterion is strict: any pushback beyond August 7, 2027, or a status change to 'Unknown' results in a 'No' [1].
- The one-day window between the primary completion date (Aug 6) and the study completion date (Aug 7) leaves virtually no buffer for final data processing [1].
What would move this number most
The potential for minor delays in the final patient follow-up visits or the data lock process that would necessitate an update to the completion date in the registry.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-09-06 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 65 · 70 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-09 07:35 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted