Will NCT03574571 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center) still show a study completion date of 1 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 1 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-01
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
75%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT03574571 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 1 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 2 October 2026: NCT03574571 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, with 732 participants. Started 2018-06; announced primary completion 2027-04-01, announced study completion 2027-04-01. Record last updated 2026-05-14. The date under test is 2027-04-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03574571
What pushes it up
- The trial is in ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING status with full enrollment achieved at 732 actual participants [tier 1].
- With less than six months remaining until the 1 April 2027 target date, the timeframe for unexpected trial management delays is short [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- The record has not been updated since 14 May 2026; upcoming annual verification around May 2027 frequently serves as a time when sponsors push back completion dates [tier 1].
- Oncology clinical trials often encounter delays in event maturation or patient follow-up data aggregation [tier 2].
What would move this number most
Whether Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center updates the ClinicalTrials.gov record to extend follow-up time prior to the 1 May 2027 review deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-01 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 75 · 75 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-17 09:15 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-17 09:15 75% 46 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial is in ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING status with full enrollment achieved at 732 actual participants [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. With less than six months remaining until the 1 April 2027 target date, the timeframe for unexpected trial management delays is short [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. The record has not been updated since 14 May 2026; upcoming annual verification around May 2027 frequently serves as a time when sponsors push back completion dates [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Oncology clinical trials often encounter delays in event maturation or patient follow-up data aggregation [tier 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center updates the ClinicalTrials.gov record to extend follow-up time prior to the 1 May 2027 review deadline.
2026-10-03 09:00 46% 0 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Hand‑verified status shows the trial is active but not recruiting, indicating data collection is likely underway, supporting on‑time completion [1]
- What would move this number most. Unexpected issues in data analysis or regulatory review after October 2026 could delay the study completion date.