Will NCT02377271 (University Hospital, Grenoble) still show a study completion date of 28 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-30
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
45%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT02377271 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 March 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 28 February 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 7 November 2026: NCT02377271 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by University Hospital, Grenoble, with 86 participants. Started 2015-08; announced primary completion 2027-02-28, announced study completion 2027-02-28 — announced to the month only. Record last updated 2026-11-06. The date under test is 2027-02-28. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02377271
What pushes it up
- Recent tier‑1 ClinicalTrials.gov record (2026‑11‑06) still lists study completion as 2027‑02, indicating no announced delay [1]
What pushes it down
- Historical tendency for trials to be delayed beyond their original dates, especially when the endpoint is still months away [general knowledge]
What would move this number most
Whether the sponsor will encounter unforeseen issues that force a delay and update the registry after the current snapshot
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-30 |
| Base rate | 30% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 30 · 45 · 48 (spread 18 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-07 07:37 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted