Will NCT01953588 (Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology) still show a study completion date of 1 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 1 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-01
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
67%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT01953588 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 1 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 3 October 2026: NCT01953588 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology, with 1473 participants. Started 2014-02; announced primary completion 2027-04-01, announced study completion 2027-04-01. Record last updated 2026-06-05. The date under test is 2027-04-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT01953588
What pushes it up
- The trial has finished enrollment with 1,473 actual participants and is actively completing follow-up, reducing recruitment-related delays [tier 1].
- The sponsor verified and confirmed the 1 April 2027 primary and study completion dates relatively recently in June 2026, leaving only about six months until the target [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Long-running academic cooperative group trials (running since 2014) often experience delays in final data lock, event-driven follow-up milestones, or protocol closeout [tier 1].
- Any pushback beyond 1 April 2027, even by a single month, resolves the question negatively [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether the trial is tracking an event-driven endpoint requiring maturation of survival/recurrence events that could force Alliance to extend follow-up past April 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-01 |
| Base rate | 60% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 72 (spread 10 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-17 12:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-17 12:01 67% 4 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. The trial has finished enrollment with 1,473 actual participants and is actively completing follow-up, reducing recruitment-related delays [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. The sponsor verified and confirmed the 1 April 2027 primary and study completion dates relatively recently in June 2026, leaving only about six months until the target [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Long-running academic cooperative group trials (running since 2014) often experience delays in final data lock, event-driven follow-up milestones, or protocol closeout [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Any pushback beyond 1 April 2027, even by a single month, resolves the question negatively [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether the trial is tracking an event-driven endpoint requiring maturation of survival/recurrence events that could force Alliance to extend follow-up past April 2027.
2026-10-03 09:03 82% 0 article(s) on file · qwen/qwen3.8-27b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. The trial is in the ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING phase, meaning the most time-consuming and variable part (participant enrollment) is complete, significantly reducing the risk of delay [1].
- What pushes it up. The record was last updated in June 2026, suggesting active maintenance and no recent signals of suspension or termination [1].
- What pushes it down. No recent news or updates confirm the trial is on track for the specific April 2027 date, leaving a small risk of administrative or data analysis delays [1].
- What pushes it down. The absence of any corroborating press or official announcements about the trial's progress means we rely solely on the static registry status [1].
- What would move this number most. Whether the data analysis and final reporting will be completed by the announced date of April 1, 2027, without any unforeseen administrative or scientific hurdles.