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Will the first published US unemployment rate for October 2026 be 4.3% or higher?

deadline 2026-11-07 confidence medium tier 2 evidence
Resolved
NO — 2026-11-07
FRED UNRATE, 2026-10 = 4.1 %, lu le 2026-11-07 (seuil 4.3 %) · source
41%Asturna estimate

Probability retained for the score: 41% (estimate of 6 Nov 2026, the last one before the day of the event, 7 Nov 2026). Revisions made on or after the event day do not count towards the score.

Resolution criterion

Yes if the civilian unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted, rounded to one decimal) for October 2026, as first published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics "Employment Situation" news release (scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET), is 4.3% or higher. A later revision does not count. A rate of 4.2% or lower resolves No. If the release has not been published by 7 November 2026, the question is cancelled and not scored.

Verified starting state

BLS Employment Situation release of 2 October 2026: the unemployment rate was 4.2% in September 2026, 4.1% in August and 4.1% in July (4.4% in September 2025); the release notes the rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March 2026. The October 2026 report is scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The 4.3% threshold is one tenth above the last published rate and at the top of the recent range. No base rate has been computed for this question; the rate used will be a guessed one. The check uses the series republished by FRED (UNRATE), first value read at or after the deadline and frozen.

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Whether October net job growth and labor force entry trends hold the unrounded unemployment rate below 4.25% (rounding to 4.2% or lower) versus pushing it to 4.25% or higher (rounding to 4.3%).

How this number is built

Deadline2026-11-07
Base rate40%
Best evidencetier 2 · 1 article(s) used
Independent runs40 · 42 (spread 2 pts)
Confidencemedium
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-11-06 09:01
Modelgemini-3.6-flash

Sources consulted

Job openings posted big September gain in positive sign for labor market ahead of payrolls reporttier 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-03

Probability history

2026-11-06 09:01 41% 17 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September 2026, demonstrating mild upward momentum within the 4.1% to 4.3% range recorded since March 2026 [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Job openings posted a significant gain in September 2026, signaling labor market demand resilience ahead of the October jobs report [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether October net job growth and labor force entry trends hold the unrounded unemployment rate below 4.25% (rounding to 4.2% or lower) versus pushing it to 4.25% or higher (rounding to 4.3%).
2026-11-05 09:17 43% 17 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. The September 2026 unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, showing mild recent upward drift [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. The unemployment rate previously reached 4.3% earlier in 2026 within its recent 4.1% to 4.3% range [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Job openings showed a big gain in September 2026, pointing to continued labor market resilience ahead of the October report [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. The unemployment rate has remained capped between 4.1% and 4.3% for six consecutive months, making a flat reading of 4.2% or a drop to 4.1% statistically likely outcomes [tier 1].
  • What would move this number most. Whether October net nonfarm payroll growth and labor force participation push the rounded unemployment rate to 4.3% versus leaving it at 4.2% or lower.
2026-11-04 09:11 42% 16 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. The September 2026 unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, showing mild upward pressure [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. The unemployment rate reached 4.3% earlier in 2026, placing the threshold well within the recent 4.1%–4.3% range [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Job openings registered a strong gain in September, signaling resilient labor demand heading into the October report [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. State-level data indicates six states sustained unemployment rates below 3% in September 2026, showing baseline labor market stability [tier 3].
  • What would move this number most. Whether October net job growth and labor force participation shifts are sufficient to prevent a 0.1 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate.
2026-11-03 09:11 44% 14 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September 2026 [1].
  • What pushes it up. The rate reached 4.3% earlier in 2026, remaining within a 4.1% to 4.3% range since March 2026 [1].
  • What pushes it down. The unemployment rate has remained strictly capped at 4.3% or below for eight consecutive months [1].
  • What pushes it down. Market previews suggest economic momentum and labor demand remain relatively firm [tier 4, article 0].
  • What would move this number most. Whether net job creation and labor force participation changes in October are sufficient to push the rounded unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points from September's 4.2%.
2026-11-02 15:00 47% 14 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in August 2026 to 4.2% in September 2026, showing mild upward momentum [1].
  • What pushes it up. The rate reached 4.3% earlier in 2026, demonstrating that 4.3% is within recent baseline volatility [1].
  • What pushes it down. The unemployment rate remained bounded between 4.1% and 4.3% from March through September 2026, holding steady at 4.2% in the latest release [1].
  • What pushes it down. A move to 4.3% requires a further increase of at least 0.1 percentage points from the September baseline of 4.2% [1].
  • What would move this number most. Whether October household survey employment changes are weak enough to shift the rounded unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% or higher.
2026-11-01 12:05 41% 12 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
  • What pushes it up. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September 2026, showing mild upward momentum [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. The BLS noted the unemployment rate reached as high as 4.3% between March and September 2026, demonstrating that reaching the threshold is within recent operating range [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. Recent reports indicate modest job growth in September 2026 with only 29,000 jobs added, pointing to labor market softening [tier 4].
  • What pushes it down. In the vast majority of adjacent months, the rounded civilian unemployment rate either stays flat or decreases rather than rising [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Market commentary characterizing the broader economy as still resilient suggests job destruction has not accelerated sharply [tier 4].
  • What would move this number most. Whether October household survey employment grew fast enough relative to civilian labor force growth to keep the unrounded rate below 4.25%.
2026-10-31 15:04 36% 11 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
  • What pushes it up. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September 2026, indicating some upward labor market momentum [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. The unemployment rate has remained anchored in a narrow 4.1% to 4.3% band since March 2026, meaning remaining flat at 4.2% or ticking down to 4.1% represents the majority of outcomes [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Month-over-month unemployment rates most frequently remain unchanged due to sample size smoothing and survey rounding [tier 1].
  • What would move this number most. Whether the household survey shows continuing cooling in employment or standard statistical noise keeping the rate flat at 4.2%.
2026-10-27 15:02 33% 3 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
  • What would move this number most. The actual October 2026 unemployment figure when first released on 6 Nov 2026.

Post-mortem

Now that this question is resolved, each revision can be scored against the actual outcome.

2026-10-27 15:02openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)33%0.109
2026-10-31 15:04gemini-3.7-flash36%0.13
2026-11-01 12:05gemini-3.7-flash41%0.168
2026-11-02 15:00gemini-3.6-flash47%0.221
2026-11-03 09:11gemini-3.6-flash44%0.194
2026-11-04 09:11gemini-3.5-flash42%0.176
2026-11-05 09:17gemini-3.5-flash43%0.185
2026-11-06 09:01gemini-3.6-flash41%0.168

Sample still too small to draw a general pattern from (rule of thumb: n≈40) — this table states facts, it does not conclude anything.