Finance · Français

Will the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November 2026 be at least 48.0, according to the first preliminary reading published on or before 20 November 2026?

deadline 2026-11-20 confidence high tier 2 evidence
97%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a preliminary consumer sentiment index for November 2026 of 48.0 or more (first published preliminary value). A lower value, or no preliminary reading by that date, resolves No.

Verified starting state

Third-party sources report October 2026 at 46.3 (preliminary, 9 October) and 48.0 (final, 23 October), after 48.1 for September (to be checked on sca.isr.umich.edu). The November preliminary release date is not confirmed: one calendar says 6 November, the usual pattern suggests 13 November. The threshold equals the October final value. Forecasts are not used as evidence.

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Whether official University of Michigan tables confirm the published preliminary figure as 51.0 without subsequent data corrections before November 20.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-11-20
Base rate90%
Best evidencetier 2 · 4 article(s) used
Independent runs96 · 98 (spread 2 pts)
Confidencehigh
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-11-14 09:18
Modelgemini-3.5-flash

Sources consulted

US consumer sentiment improves in November; worries about AI bubble emergetier 2 · Reuters · 2026-11-06US Consumer Sentiment Improves, Fueled by Independentstier 2 · Bloomberg.com · 2026-11-06Gold price trades near $4,050/oz after preliminary Consumer Sentiment rises to 51, inflation expectations easetier 4 · Kitco · 2026-11-06Consumer Sentiment Recovers Significantly in Novembertier 4 · Advisor Perspectives · 2026-11-06

Probability history

2026-11-14 09:18 97% 31 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. On November 6, 2026, Reuters [tier 2] and Bloomberg [tier 2] reported that US preliminary consumer sentiment improved in November compared to October.
  • What pushes it up. Kitco [tier 4] specifically reported the preliminary November index rose to 51.0, corroborated by Reuters [tier 2] and Bloomberg [tier 2] reporting on the November sentiment rise.
  • What pushes it down. Initial press coverage could misquote preliminary sub-indexes or revised figures before final publication checks [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether official University of Michigan tables confirm the published preliminary figure as 51.0 without subsequent data corrections before November 20.
2026-11-13 09:02 96% 31 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. Reuters [tier 2] and Bloomberg [tier 2] reported on November 6, 2026 that US consumer sentiment improved in November.
  • What pushes it up. Financial news reports [tier 4] corroborated that the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November rose to 51, exceeding the 48.0 threshold.
  • What pushes it down. The specific value of 51 is sourced from tier 4 coverage [tier 4], though corroborated in trend by tier 2 wire services [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether official release data could differ slightly from reported early press figures upon final verification.
2026-11-12 09:12 94% 29 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Reuters reports that US consumer sentiment improved in November 2026 [0]
  • What pushes it up. Bloomberg reports that US consumer sentiment improved, driven by gains among independent voters [1]
  • What pushes it up. A tier 4 source specifies the preliminary sentiment index as 51, which is significantly above the 48.0 threshold [11]
  • What pushes it up. Advisor Perspectives reports that sentiment recovered significantly in November [12]
  • What pushes it down. Reuters notes that emerging worries about an AI bubble could temper consumer optimism [0]
  • What pushes it down. Voters were reported to be in a sour economic mood heading into the midterm elections [3]
  • What would move this number most. The specific numerical value of 51.0 is currently only reported by tier 4 sources, although the upward trend is corroborated by tier 2 reports.
2026-11-11 09:23 96% 29 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
  • What pushes it up. Tier 2 wire reports from Reuters and Bloomberg on 6 November 2026 confirm that preliminary US consumer sentiment improved in November [tier 2].
  • What pushes it up. Kitco reports the preliminary index rose to 51, comfortably above the 48.0 threshold [tier 4], corroborated by tier 2 headlines of a November sentiment improvement.
  • What pushes it up. The preliminary reading was already released on 6 November 2026, safely prior to the 20 November deadline [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. The explicit reading of 51 is only visible in tier 4 coverage, while tier 2 headlines state it improved without detailing the headline number [tier 2, tier 4].
  • What pushes it down. If 'improves' were measured strictly against the October preliminary reading of 46.3 rather than the final 48.0, an increase could theoretically have landed between 46.4 and 47.9 [tier 1, tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Direct primary verification of the exact headline number on sca.isr.umich.edu to confirm the reported 51 reading.
2026-11-10 09:18 97% 26 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. Tier 2 reports from Reuters [0] and Bloomberg [1] confirm that preliminary consumer sentiment improved in November 2026.
  • What pushes it up. Tier 4 sources [9, 10, 11] corroborate the release on 6 November 2026, with Kitco [9] explicitly citing a preliminary figure of 51, well above the 48.0 threshold.
  • What pushes it down. Sentiment was near record lows in recent months (October preliminary was 46.3) [1, 5], showing persistent vulnerability to economic stress.
  • What would move this number most. Whether any official adjustments or discrepancies in the initial reporting alter the recorded preliminary value below 48.0.
2026-11-09 09:15 98% 26 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Tier 2 wire services (Reuters, Bloomberg) reported on 6 November 2026 that US preliminary consumer sentiment improved in November [tier 2].
  • What pushes it up. Trade reports indicate the preliminary November consumer sentiment reading rose to 51, comfortably exceeding the 48.0 threshold [tier 4, corroborated by tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Consumer sentiment had been near historic lows in prior months (October preliminary was 46.3), showing ongoing economic dissatisfaction among voters [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether official table revisions by the University of Michigan before the deadline alter the preliminary reading.
2026-11-08 09:17 97% 23 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Tier 2 sources Reuters and Bloomberg report that US consumer sentiment improved in the November preliminary reading [0, 1].
  • What pushes it up. Tier 4 source Kitco explicitly reports the preliminary November figure as 51.0, which is significantly above the 48.0 threshold [8].
  • What pushes it up. Tier 4 source Advisor Perspectives describes the November recovery as significant [9].
  • What pushes it up. The reported improvement occurred despite the sour economic mood noted in late October [4, 5].
  • What pushes it down. Voters remain frustrated by inflation and high costs for essentials like food and housing, which could have capped the sentiment recovery [3, 11, 12].
  • What pushes it down. If the 'improvement' reported by Tier 2 sources was only relative to the October preliminary reading (46.3) and not the final (48.0), the value could theoretically be below the threshold, though Tier 4 data suggests otherwise [0, 1, 8].
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is whether the Tier 2 reports of 'improvement' are measured against the October final reading of 48.0 or the October preliminary reading of 46.3, although the specific figure of 51.0 from a Tier 4 source reduces this doubt.
2026-11-07 09:21 96% 22 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
  • What pushes it up. Reuters and Bloomberg reported on 6 November 2026 that US preliminary consumer sentiment improved in November [tier 2].
  • What pushes it up. Kitco specifically reports that the preliminary November consumer sentiment rose to 51, above the 48.0 threshold [tier 4, corroborated by tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Recent months have hovered near record lows, with October preliminary dropping to 46.3 before final revision to 48.0 [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Kitco is a tier 4 source and the exact figure of 51 is not explicitly quoted in the available tier 2 headlines [tier 4].
  • What would move this number most. Whether the preliminary reading reported as improved by wire services actually cleared 48.0 or was a sub-48 improvement over October's preliminary 46.3.
2026-11-06 09:17 33% 18 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The October final reading recovered to 48.0 after a significantly lower preliminary reading [1].
  • What pushes it up. The September reading was 48.1, and the index was reportedly higher in the four months preceding it [1, 10].
  • What pushes it down. The October preliminary reading of 46.3 was a significant drop and the first recent instance of a preliminary value falling below the 48.0 threshold [1].
  • What pushes it down. The trend of preliminary readings has been downward, moving from 48.1 in September to 46.3 in October [1, 4].
  • What pushes it down. Voters are reported to be in a 'sour economic mood' heading into the midterms, with high frustration over inflation and the cost of food and housing [1, 7, 8].
  • What pushes it down. Consumer sentiment is described as being near record lows as frustration over the economy mounts [2, 3].
  • What would move this number most. Whether the conclusion of the 2026 midterm elections provides a sentiment boost that is captured in the preliminary November survey, or if the downward trend in preliminary readings persists.
2026-11-02 12:04 34% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The final October reading recovered to 48.0 from a lower preliminary value, indicating some late-month stabilization [1].
  • What pushes it up. The threshold of 48.0 was achieved in the final readings for both September and October [1].
  • What pushes it down. The October preliminary reading was only 46.3, which is significantly below the 48.0 threshold [1].
  • What pushes it down. The 2026 US Midterm elections on November 3rd are expected to cause significant economic uncertainty, which typically depresses consumer sentiment [2].
  • What pushes it down. Multiple reports describe sentiment as being near record lows with mounting frustration over the economy and costs [1, 2, 7].
  • What pushes it down. The general trend has been described as deteriorating since August [3].
  • What would move this number most. The immediate reaction of consumers to the results of the November 3rd midterm elections and whether any post-election clarity provides a sentiment boost before the mid-month survey.