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Will Transocean complete its acquisition of Valaris on or before 31 December 2026?

deadline 2026-12-31 confidence high tier 2 evidence
89%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if Transocean Ltd. and/or Valaris Limited announce, by press release or SEC filing, that the acquisition of Valaris by Transocean (by Bermuda scheme of arrangement) has been completed (the scheme has become effective and closing has occurred) on or before 31 December 2026. An announcement of shareholder approval, court sanction or an expected closing date, without the completion itself, does not count. No completion announced by that date, or a termination of the Business Combination Agreement, resolves No.

Verified starting state

Business Combination Agreement signed 9 February 2026: all-share deal worth about $5.8 billion, 15.235 Transocean shares per Valaris share, by Bermuda scheme of arrangement (Valaris Form 8-K dated 30 September 2026). That 8-K says the US Department of Justice closed its antitrust investigation and the waiting period has expired; a Transocean 8-K of 1 July 2026 reported CFIUS approval on 29 June 2026. A Transocean 8-K dated 23 October 2026 says the Transocean extraordinary general meeting and the Valaris court-ordered meeting are both set for 24 November 2026, the Bermuda Supreme Court sanction hearing for 26 November 2026, and closing is anticipated on or about 1 December 2026, subject to those approvals. Shareholder approval by both companies and the court sanction are still required; no vote result had been read at the time of writing, and the outside date of the agreement was not read. No base rate has been computed for this question; the rate used will be a guessed one.

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Whether both sets of shareholders approve the deal on 24 November 2026 and the Bermuda Supreme Court grants sanction on 26 November 2026 without delay.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-12-31
Base rate85%
Best evidencetier 2 · 1 article(s) used
Independent runs88 · 90 (spread 2 pts)
Confidencehigh
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-10-27 12:00
Modelgemini-3.5-flash

Sources consulted

Valaris Moves Toward Shareholder Vote on Transocean Mergertier 2 · The Globe and Mail · 2026-10-24