Will Tempus AI complete its acquisition of Personalis on or before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
88%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Tempus AI, Inc. and/or Personalis, Inc. announce, by press release or SEC filing, that the merger of Personalis into a Tempus subsidiary has been completed (closing has occurred) on or before 31 December 2026. An announcement of stockholder approval, regulatory clearance or an expected closing date, without the completion itself, does not count. No completion announced by that date, or a termination of the merger agreement, resolves No.
Verified starting state
Merger agreement dated 20 July 2026: each Personalis share converts into Tempus Class A stock (exchange ratio 0.3356 if the Tempus stock price is at or below $48.42, otherwise $16.25 divided by the Tempus stock price), with Tempus allowed to pay $16.25 in cash per share for up to 50% of the shares (definitive proxy statement, DEFM14A, dated 21 October 2026). The special meeting of Personalis stockholders is set for 30 November 2026 at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time (record date 15 October 2026); adoption needs a majority of outstanding shares, and Merck (about 13%) has signed a voting agreement in support, while Tempus holds about 12%. The HSR waiting period expired on 2 October 2026; the UK CMA said on 13 August 2026 it had no further questions at this stage. Closing also requires S-4 effectiveness and Nasdaq listing approval of the new Tempus shares. The outside date is 20 April 2027, extendable. The excerpt read gives no specific expected closing date, and the last part of the proxy (after its first 100,000 characters) was not read. No base rate has been computed for this question; the rate used will be a guessed one.
What pushes it up
- Antitrust regulatory hurdles have been cleared, as the US HSR waiting period expired on October 2, 2026 and the UK CMA raised no questions [1].
- Definitive proxy statement (DEFM14A) was filed on October 21, 2026, setting the shareholder vote for November 30, 2026, leaving a full month to close before year-end 2026 [1].
- Key shareholders representing approximately 25% of voting power (Merck ~13% and Tempus ~12%) are already aligned to vote in favor [1].
What pushes it down
- Unforeseen delays in SEC clearance/S-4 effectiveness, Nasdaq listing approvals, or customary closing conditions could slip closing into early 2027 [1].
- The official merger agreement outside date is April 20, 2027, allowing transaction completion past December 31, 2026 without breach [1].
What would move this number most
Whether any administrative closing conditions or share registration formalities delay closing past the November 30 vote into 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 85% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 88 · 88 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-27 12:06 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |