Will Meta release the weights of a model in the Muse family before 30 June 2027?
deadline 2027-06-30
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
99%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Meta makes downloadable weights of a model named "Muse" publicly available (official Hugging Face repository, llama.com, or ai.meta.com), under any licence whatsoever. Existing Llama models do not count.
Verified starting state
Muse Spark, launched on 8 April 2026, is strictly proprietary (Meta AI app, website, API in private preview). Alexandr Wang mentioned plans to open future versions, without a timeline. Meta has only confirmed that existing Llama models remain open.
What pushes it up
- Meta officially released open weights for 'Muse Glimmer' on Hugging Face in August 2026 [tier 1].
- Meta officially released 'Muse Spark Open', an open-weight frontier multimodal mixture-of-experts model, on Hugging Face on 15 October 2026 [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Unforeseen regulatory interventions or licensing disputes could theoretically disrupt repository hosting, though releases are already active [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether any administrative or legal issues could cause the removal of released repositories prior to resolution confirmation.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-06-30 |
| Base rate | 80% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 99 · 99 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-18 09:10 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-18 09:10 99% 146 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. Meta officially released open weights for 'Muse Glimmer' on Hugging Face in August 2026 [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Meta officially released 'Muse Spark Open', an open-weight frontier multimodal mixture-of-experts model, on Hugging Face on 15 October 2026 [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Unforeseen regulatory interventions or licensing disputes could theoretically disrupt repository hosting, though releases are already active [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether any administrative or legal issues could cause the removal of released repositories prior to resolution confirmation.
2026-10-12 12:13 75% 79 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Alexandr Wang (Scale AI CEO) mentioned plans to open future versions of the Muse family [Starting State].
- What pushes it up. A tier 1 source (Hugging Face) has already published an article describing 'Muse Glimmer' as open source, suggesting a release is imminent or already in the pipeline [0].
- What pushes it up. Meta's broader strategy relies on open-weight models to foster a developer ecosystem that competes with closed-source rivals like OpenAI [Base Knowledge].
- What pushes it up. Competitive pressure from other high-performing open models like Falcon and Nemotron encourages Meta to maintain its lead in the open-weight space [Context].
- What pushes it down. The starting state explicitly notes that Muse Spark is strictly proprietary and that Meta has only confirmed Llama models as open [Starting State].
- What pushes it down. The high compute costs associated with Muse (estimated at $2.8 billion for 100 million users) may drive Meta to keep the models closed to monetize them through proprietary services [2, 23].
- What pushes it down. Muse is being positioned as a consumer-facing assistant/app, a category where Meta may prefer a proprietary 'walled garden' approach similar to ChatGPT [5, 12].
- What would move this number most. Whether Meta will maintain a strict brand division where 'Llama' remains open-weight while 'Muse' remains a proprietary product line for its consumer assistant.
2026-10-10 09:18 93% 67 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. Hugging Face published an entry detailing Meta's release of 'Muse Glimmer' as a local, agentic, multimodal, and open-source model [tier 1, article 0].
- What pushes it up. Meta leadership previously indicated plans to release open versions of future Muse models following the proprietary preview of Muse Spark [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Meta's initial flagship Muse model (Muse Spark) was launched as strictly proprietary to drive monetisation and API usage [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Meta could restrict open releases of advanced agentic capabilities due to safety or commercial concerns [tier 2, article 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether Meta maintains open-weight releases for the entire Muse family or limits open releases strictly to smaller edge variants like Muse Glimmer.
2026-10-02 09:11 38% 21 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Article 0 announces "Muse Glimmer" as open source, suggesting a possible weight release [tier 1]
- What pushes it up. Alexandr Wang has said future Muse versions may be opened, indicating intent [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- What pushes it down. Muse Spark is confirmed proprietary with no timeline for openness [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- What pushes it down. No official statement or shipped repository of Muse weights exists yet; Meta only confirms Llama remains open [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- What pushes it down. All other press mentions focus on usage, marketing, or competition, not on weight release [tiers 2‑4]
- What would move this number most. Whether the "open source" claim in article 0 includes downloadable model weights or is limited to code/APIs.
2026-09-25 09:08 85% 3 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Official announcement of Muse Glimmer as open source, indicating weights are released [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Previous Muse Spark was proprietary and Meta has not set a timeline for open release; uncertainty remains about whether the open source claim includes weights [tier 1]
- What would move this number most. Whether the open source announcement actually includes downloadable weights for Muse Glimmer