Will US producer prices for October 2026 rise by at least 6.3% year on year (PPI final demand, not seasonally adjusted), according to the first figure published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on or before 16 November 2026?
deadline 2026-11-16
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
61%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 85%, brought back to 61% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if the BLS publishes, on or before 16 November 2026, a 12-month change in the PPI for final demand (not seasonally adjusted) for the 12 months ended October 2026 of +6.3% or more (first published value, as rounded by the BLS). A lower value, or no publication by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
BLS release of 15 October 2026: PPI for final demand +1.3% in September (seasonally adjusted) and +6.3% for the 12 months ended September (August: +5.4%). The October release is scheduled for Friday 13 November 2026 at 08:30 ET (BLS release calendar). The threshold equals the September reading. Forecasts are not used as evidence. Same BLS agency as the US CPI questions but a different publication, with its own release date.
What pushes it up
- Hand-verified official starting state establishes that 12-month PPI for final demand reached 6.3% in September 2026 [1].
- Multiple press reports indicate that the BLS release on 13 November 2026 showed October PPI rising at an annual pace of 6.5%, above the 6.3% threshold [4].
What pushes it down
- The reported October 2026 figure of 6.5% relies entirely on tier 4 reports, which require tier 1 or tier 2 corroboration to be treated as conclusive under the source hierarchy rules [4].
What would move this number most
Whether official BLS tier 1 documentation or tier 2 wire service reporting confirms the 6.5% first published unadjusted annual figure before the deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-16 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 63 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 85% brought back to 61% |
| Last revised | 2026-11-14 09:08 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-14 09:08 61% 16 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. Hand-verified official starting state establishes that 12-month PPI for final demand reached 6.3% in September 2026 [1].
- What pushes it up. Multiple press reports indicate that the BLS release on 13 November 2026 showed October PPI rising at an annual pace of 6.5%, above the 6.3% threshold [4].
- What pushes it down. The reported October 2026 figure of 6.5% relies entirely on tier 4 reports, which require tier 1 or tier 2 corroboration to be treated as conclusive under the source hierarchy rules [4].
- What would move this number most. Whether official BLS tier 1 documentation or tier 2 wire service reporting confirms the 6.5% first published unadjusted annual figure before the deadline.
2026-11-13 09:00 49% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. September 2026 PPI YoY accelerated to +6.3% (up from +5.4% in August), showing strong upward price momentum going into October [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. A 6.3% YoY inflation rate is elevated, leaving room for base effects or monthly softening in energy and goods prices to pull the rate back below 6.3%.
- What pushes it down. No official tier 1 or 2 data for October has been published yet prior to the scheduled 08:30 ET release [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. The magnitude of monthly price changes in energy, food, and core services for October relative to October 2025 base effects.
2026-11-12 09:04 48% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. September 2026 showed strong momentum in producer prices, with monthly final demand rising 1.3% seasonally adjusted and pushing the unadjusted 12-month rate up from 5.4% to 6.3% [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. A 6.3% year-on-year rate is relatively high, and any mean reversion in volatile components like energy or food following September's sharp rise could pull the October YoY figure below 6.3% [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Favorable base effects from October 2025 could require a high month-on-month unadjusted increase in October 2026 just to match the 6.3% threshold.
- What would move this number most. The magnitude of month-on-month changes in energy and food components in October 2026 relative to October 2025.
2026-11-11 09:12 48% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. September 2026 YoY final demand PPI accelerated sharply to 6.3% from 5.4% in August, showing strong upward momentum in baseline producer prices [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. The BLS has scheduled the October 2026 PPI release for November 13, 2026, ensuring the figure will be available before the November 16 deadline [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. A minor month-on-month deceleration or unfavorable base comparison against October 2025 could easily pull the YoY rate back below the 6.3% threshold [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Energy and food components within final demand PPI are historically volatile and prone to rapid pullbacks following sharp single-month surges [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. The magnitude of the October 2026 month-on-month price index change relative to the October 2025 index base.
2026-11-10 09:09 23% 2 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The September 2026 PPI 12-month change was already at 6.3%, which matches the required threshold [1].
- What pushes it up. The year-on-year trend is accelerating, rising from 5.4% in August to 6.3% in September [1].
- What pushes it up. The monthly seasonally adjusted increase for September was a very high 1.3%, indicating strong current inflationary momentum [1].
- What pushes it down. PPI is inherently volatile and can be significantly impacted by sudden drops in energy or commodity prices [1].
- What pushes it down. The year-on-year figure is sensitive to base effects from October 2025; if that month had a high price increase, the 2026 year-on-year figure could decrease even if prices rise [1].
- What would move this number most. The comparison between the October 2026 monthly price change and the October 2025 monthly price change, which determines the year-on-year shift.
2026-11-09 20:05 50% 2 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. September 2026 PPI final demand unadjusted YoY reached 6.3%, showing strong upward momentum from August's 5.4% [tier 1 hand-verified state].
- What pushes it down. PPI is volatile month-to-month, and any drop in energy or food prices or unfavorable base effects could drop the October YoY figure below 6.3% [tier 1 hand-verified state].
- What would move this number most. Energy price swings during October 2026 and base effects compared to October 2025.