Will the Riksbank raise its policy rate at its monetary policy meeting announced on 4 November 2026?
deadline 2026-11-06
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
Resolved
YES — 2026-11-04
Communiqué de la Riksbank du 4 nov. 2026 : « Policy rate raised to 2 per cent » (taux de 1,75 % avant la réunion) ·
source
45%Asturna estimate
Probability retained for the score: 45% (estimate of 3 Nov 2026, the last one before the day of the event, 4 Nov 2026). Revisions made on or after the event day do not count towards the score.
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Riksbank announces, on or before 6 November 2026, a policy rate above the rate in effect just before the November 2026 meeting. An unchanged or lower rate, or no announcement by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
A third-party calendar gives the announcement for 4 November 2026 at 09:30 Stockholm time, with the new rate effective 11 November, and a policy rate of 1.75% unchanged since September 2025. That page predates the 24 September 2026 meeting, so the level is to be checked on riksbank.se. No market probability is used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- Article 4 [tier 4] and Article 5 [tier 4] state that on 4 November 2026, the Riksbank announced a policy rate hike to 2 per cent.
- Article 1 [tier 2] and Article 2 [tier 2] corroborate that the Riksbank had previously kept rate hikes explicitly in play for late 2026.
What pushes it down
- Article 0 [tier 2] reports on 5 November 2026 that slowing inflation weakens the case for Riksbank rate hikes.
- Articles 4 and 5 reporting the 4 November rate hike are categorized as tier 4 in the source inventory, requiring tier 2 corroboration.
What would move this number most
Whether formal tier 1 verification from the Riksbank directly confirms the 2% decision prior to the 6 November deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-06 |
| Base rate | 25% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 5 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 90 · 92 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-05 12:04 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-05 12:04 91% 12 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. Article 4 [tier 4] and Article 5 [tier 4] state that on 4 November 2026, the Riksbank announced a policy rate hike to 2 per cent.
- What pushes it up. Article 1 [tier 2] and Article 2 [tier 2] corroborate that the Riksbank had previously kept rate hikes explicitly in play for late 2026.
- What pushes it down. Article 0 [tier 2] reports on 5 November 2026 that slowing inflation weakens the case for Riksbank rate hikes.
- What pushes it down. Articles 4 and 5 reporting the 4 November rate hike are categorized as tier 4 in the source inventory, requiring tier 2 corroboration.
- What would move this number most. Whether formal tier 1 verification from the Riksbank directly confirms the 2% decision prior to the 6 November deadline.
2026-11-04 09:08 94% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Bloomberg [tier 2] reported in October 2026 that steady inflation in Sweden kept a Riksbank rate hike 'in play' for the upcoming meetings [0].
- What pushes it up. In August 2026, Bloomberg [tier 2] reported that the Riksbank had explicitly restated the chance of a rate hike occurring before the end of the year [1].
- What pushes it up. Reports dated today [tier 4], including a publication on the Riksbank's own website, state that the policy rate was raised to 2 per cent from 1.75 per cent [2, 3]. These tier 4 reports of the event are corroborated by the prior tier 2 signals of intent.
- What pushes it down. Under the strict source hierarchy rules, the specific announcement of the hike today is currently only available via tier 4 sources and has not yet been corroborated by a tier 1 or 2 source for the final decision [2, 3].
- What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the reliance on tier 4 sources for the confirmation of the actual decision, as the source hierarchy requires tier 1 or 2 corroboration to treat the event as definitive.
2026-11-03 09:09 45% 8 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The Riksbank explicitly signaled the possibility of rate hikes 'this year' (2026) in its August and September communications [1, 2].
- What pushes it up. Bloomberg reports that steady inflation as of October 2026 keeps a rate hike 'in play' for the upcoming meeting [0].
- What pushes it down. The Riksbank has maintained the policy rate at 1.75% since September 2025, choosing to hold in both August and September 2026 despite previous hawkish signals [Starting State, 2, 4].
- What pushes it down. The bank has shown a preference for stability over the last year, suggesting a high threshold for actual implementation of a hike [Starting State, 4].
- What would move this number most. Whether the Riksbank feels compelled to follow through on its 'hike this year' signal before the end of 2026 despite having held steady in previous months.
2026-11-02 12:05 60% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The Riksbank explicitly signaled a chance of a rate hike 'this year' (2026) in its August and September communications [1, 2].
- What pushes it up. Bloomberg reports that steady inflation keeps a rate hike 'in play' for the upcoming meeting [0].
- What pushes it up. With only two months remaining in the year, the November meeting is the primary window to fulfill the signal of a hike 'this year' [2].
- What pushes it down. The Riksbank has maintained the policy rate at 1.75% for over a year, repeatedly holding steady despite previous signals of potential hikes [1, 2, 4, 6].
- What pushes it down. Inflation is described as 'steady' rather than accelerating, which may not provide enough impetus for the Riksbank to move if economic growth is a concern [0, 5].
- What would move this number most. Whether the Riksbank prioritizes its forward guidance of a hike 'this year' over the 'steady' inflation data that has so far resulted in consecutive holds.
Post-mortem
Now that this question is resolved, each revision can be scored against the actual outcome.
| 2026-11-02 12:05 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 60% | 0.16 |
| 2026-11-03 09:09 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 45% | 0.303 |
| 2026-11-04 09:08 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 94% | 0.004 |
| 2026-11-05 12:04 | gemini-3.6-flash | 91% | 0.008 |
- gemini-3-flash-preview — n=3, average Brier score 0.156
- gemini-3.6-flash — n=1, average Brier score 0.008
Sample still too small to draw a general pattern from (rule of thumb: n≈40) — this table states facts, it does not conclude anything.