Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate target at its November 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting, with the decision announced on 3 November 2026?
deadline 2026-11-03
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
61%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Reserve Bank of Australia announces, on 3 November 2026 following its 2-3 November 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting, a cash rate target above 4.60%. A cash rate target kept at 4.60% or lowered, or no decision announced by 3 November 2026, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The RBA's own schedule lists the November 2026 Board meeting on 2-3 November 2026, with the decision announced on 3 November at 2.30 pm (Sydney time) together with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. According to a third-party report (OrbitRemit), the RBA raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points on 29 September 2026 (9-0 vote), to 4.60% from 30 September, the fourth increase of 2026; this figure has not been checked on the RBA's own decision statement, which is the resolution source. Market probabilities are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The RBA Deputy Governor explicitly warned in late October that the inflation outlook is 'worsening', signaling strong hawkish bias ahead of the meeting [tier 2].
- The November meeting coincides with the release of the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, a preferred window for the Board to adjust policy alongside updated macroeconomic forecasts [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Having already raised the cash rate four times in 2026 to 4.60% (most recently in late September), the Board may opt to pause to assess policy transmission lags [tier 1].
- Remarks by RBA leadership highlight risks rather than committing to a specific decision, representing rhetoric rather than a confirmed policy path [tier 2].
What would move this number most
Upcoming Q3 CPI inflation figures or last-minute economic prints that could either force an immediate hike or give the Board room to hold.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-03 |
| Base rate | 35% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 63 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-25 20:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted