Will the BEA report that the US core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose at least 3.1% from a year earlier in September 2026, in its release published on or before 30 October 2026?
deadline 2026-10-30
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
33%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the BEA "Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026" release, published on or before 30 October 2026, reports that the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.1% or more from September 2025 (the year-over-year percent change as stated in the release). Only the figure in the first release counts; later revisions are ignored. A reported figure below 3.1%, or no release by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The BEA schedules the Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 on 29 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. In its August 2026 release, the PCE price index rose 0.3% from July and 3.4% from August 2025; the PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% from July and 3.0% from August 2025. The threshold is one tenth of a point above the August year-over-year figure.
What pushes it up
- The August 2026 core PCE month-over-month increase of 0.2% indicates that underlying price pressures remain present [tier 1].
- Some analysts suggest that recent downward revisions in PCE deflators are retroactive adjustments rather than signals of a new disinflationary trend [tier 4].
What pushes it down
- The August 2026 core PCE year-over-year rate of 3.0% was reported as being lower than market expectations, suggesting a cooling trend [tier 4].
- Methodology changes by the BEA are expected to exert downward pressure on core PCE inflation calculations [tier 2].
- Market sentiment following the August release indicated an easing of inflation concerns and reduced expectations for rate hikes [tier 4].
What would move this number most
The specific month-over-month figure from September 2025 that will be replaced in the year-over-year calculation, which determines the 'base effect'.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-30 |
| Base rate | 45% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 30 · 35 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-22 09:38 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted