Will the BLS's first published estimate of the change in US total nonfarm payroll employment for November 2026 be at least +150,000, published on or before 7 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-07
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
57%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the BLS "Employment Situation" release for November 2026, published on or before 7 December 2026, reports a change in total nonfarm payroll employment of +150,000 or more. Only the first published estimate counts; later revisions are ignored. A lower figure, or no release by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The BLS schedule lists the November 2026 Employment Situation for Friday 4 December 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The first published estimate for October 2026 was +165,000 (FRED PAYEMS, read on 7 November 2026). The threshold sits below that level. No forecast or market probability is used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The October 2026 employment change of +165,000 indicates labor market growth currently running above the target threshold [1].
What pushes it down
- Monthly payroll numbers exhibit significant volatility and frequently fall below +150,000 even during sustained economic expansions [1].
What would move this number most
Unforeseen macroeconomic slowdowns, seasonal hiring shifts, or labor disputes in November that could reduce monthly job gains below 150,000.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-07 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 55 · 58 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-08 12:00 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |