Will Norges Bank raise its policy rate at its monetary policy meeting of 5 November 2026?
deadline 2026-11-05
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
30%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Norges Bank announces on 5 November 2026 a policy rate (sight deposit rate) higher than the rate in force immediately before that meeting. A rate kept unchanged or lowered, or no decision announced on 5 November 2026, resolves No.
Verified starting state
Norges Bank's own calendar lists its next policy rate decision for Thursday 5 November 2026 at 10:00 and the following one for Thursday 17 December 2026. According to a third-party report (FXStreet, quoting Nomura, 13 August 2026), the policy rate was 4.25% and was held at the August 2026 meeting, with a possible hike flagged; any decision at a later meeting has not been checked, which is why the criterion refers to the rate in force before the 5 November meeting. Third-party forecasts are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- Norges Bank raised its policy rate to 4.50% in September 2026 and explicitly signaled readiness to act again with more hikes potentially to come [tier 2].
What pushes it down
- Norges Bank typically prefers to adjust rates or update its policy trajectory during major meetings accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report (e.g., September and December) rather than interim meetings like November unless economic conditions warrant urgent action [tier 2].
- Inflation previously showed signs of surprising to the downside earlier in the quarter, which could lessen the urgency for back-to-back rate increases [tier 4].
What would move this number most
Whether upcoming October inflation and currency (NOK) data force Norges Bank to act in November rather than waiting until its December Monetary Policy Report.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-05 |
| Base rate | 25% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 30 · 30 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-26 09:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted