Will Microsoft report total revenue above $91.0 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, in results published on or before 29 October 2026?
deadline 2026-10-29
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
59%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Microsoft's press release announcing its fiscal year 2027 first-quarter results (quarter ending 30 September 2026), published on or before 29 October 2026, reports total revenue strictly greater than $91.0 billion. A figure of $91.0 billion or lower, or no results published by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
Microsoft announced that it will publish its fiscal year 2027 first-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday 28 October 2026, with a conference call at 2:30 p.m. PT. In the fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, total revenue was $90.0 billion (up 18%). On its July 2026 earnings call, Microsoft guided first-quarter revenue to between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion (growth of 16% to 17%). The threshold is just above the top of that range.
What pushes it up
- The $91.0 billion threshold requires beating the top of Microsoft's guided range ($90.95 billion) by only $50 million, or less than 0.06% [tier 1].
- Results are officially scheduled for release on 28 October 2026, within the deadline window [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- The entire official guidance range ($89.85B to $90.95B) sits below the threshold, meaning resolving Yes requires an outright beat above the high end [tier 1].
- Potential macroeconomic enterprise budget scrutiny or FX volatility could keep revenue inside the guided range [tier 1].
- The only recent external report is an analyst price target hike at tier 4, which cannot be used on its own to adjust the forecast [tier 4].
What would move this number most
Whether Azure and AI infrastructure revenue growth outperformed the midpoint of management's expectations enough to deliver a typical modest guidance beat.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-29 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 60 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-21 10:22 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted