Will the first published US job openings level (JOLTS, seasonally adjusted) for October 2026 be at least 7,400 thousand, published on or before 2 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-02
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
63%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the BLS JOLTS release for October 2026, published on or before 2 December 2026, reports total nonfarm job openings (seasonally adjusted, in thousands) of 7,400 or more. Only the first published value counts; later revisions are ignored. A lower value, or no release by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The BLS schedule lists JOLTS for October 2026 on Tuesday 1 December 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The first published level for September 2026 was 7,523 thousand (FRED JTSJOL, read on 4 November 2026). The threshold is about 1.6% below that level. No forecast or market probability is used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The September 2026 level of 7,523 thousand is 1.6% above the 7,400 thousand threshold [Starting State, tier 1].
- Job openings rose by 333,000 in the previous month, indicating a recent upward trend in labor demand [0, tier 4].
What pushes it down
- JOLTS data is highly volatile, and monthly declines exceeding 1.6% have occurred frequently in historical series [General Knowledge].
What would move this number most
The high monthly volatility of the JOLTS survey and the potential for a significant reversal of the large September gain.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-02 |
| Base rate | 60% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 63 (spread 1 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-08 12:06 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted