Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026, published on or before 3 November 2026, be at least 54.5%?
deadline 2026-11-03
confidence medium
tier 3 evidence
46%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as first published in the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI Report on Business on or before 3 November 2026, is 54.5% or higher. A value below 54.5%, or no value published by that date, resolves No. Later revisions are ignored.
Verified starting state
According to Textile World, reproducing the ISM's report of 1 October 2026, the September 2026 Manufacturing PMI was 54.5%, after 54.6% in August (a third-party finance calendar gives 55.6% for July). The release date for October (Monday 2 November 2026, 10:00 ET) comes from a third-party calendar and has not been confirmed on the ISM's own calendar, which is why the question accepts any publication up to 3 November 2026. Third-party forecasts are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- Manufacturing expansion extended to nine consecutive months in September 2026 [tier 4, article 3].
- New orders showed improvement in the September report [tier 4, article 5], providing fundamental support for production into October.
What pushes it down
- The PMI has shown a slight downward trend over the past quarter, falling from 55.6% in July to 54.6% in August and 54.5% in September [tier 1 starting state].
- Prices jumped significantly in September, putting pressure on manufacturers and potentially slowing purchasing activity [tier 3, article 0].
- With September exactly at 54.5%, any minor month-on-month contraction or variance of even 0.1 percentage points will push the figure below the 54.5% threshold.
What would move this number most
Whether October new order momentum was strong enough to offset the drag from rising input costs and momentum deceleration.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-03 |
| Base rate | 48% |
| Best evidence | tier 3 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 45 · 46 (spread 1 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-26 09:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted