Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November 2026, published on or before 2 December 2026, be at least 55.0%?
deadline 2026-12-02
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
59%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report on Business for November 2026, published on or before 2 December 2026, reports a Manufacturing PMI of 55.0% or higher. Only the first published value counts. A lower value, or no report by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The ISM release calendar lists the December 2026 manufacturing report for 1 December 2026, read here as the release covering November 2026 data (to be checked on ismworld.org). The October 2026 Manufacturing PMI was 55.5% (ISM release of 2 November 2026). The threshold is half a point below that level. No forecast or market probability is used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The hand-verified starting state establishes October 2026 Manufacturing PMI at 55.5%, providing a 0.5 percentage point cushion above the 55.0% target [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Month-over-month variations in the ISM Manufacturing PMI regularly exceed 0.5 percentage points, making a modest dip below 55.0% a frequent occurrence even during growth phases [tier 1].
- Available press coverage is limited to tier 4 aggregators and lacks forward-looking tier 1 or 2 sub-index lead indicators for November [tier 4].
What would move this number most
Whether November production and new orders maintain momentum or undergo standard short-term mean reversion.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-02 |
| Base rate | 58% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 60 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-08 15:04 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted