Will Eurostat's flash estimate of euro area annual HICP inflation for October 2026, published on or before 6 November 2026, be above 3.8%?
deadline 2026-11-06
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
61%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Eurostat's flash estimate of euro area annual HICP inflation (all items) for October 2026, published on or before 6 November 2026, is strictly above 3.8%. Only the flash estimate counts; later revisions are ignored. A reported figure of 3.8% or lower, or no flash estimate published by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The ECB statistical calendar lists the October 2026 flash HICP estimate for 4 November 2026 at 15:00. Euro area annual inflation was 3.8% in September 2026 (flash on 2 October, confirmed on 16 October), up from 3.2% in August; energy was +18.8% (14.3% in August), services 3.2% and core (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) 2.5%. The threshold is the September level.
What pushes it up
- Headline inflation has shown strong upward momentum, rising consecutively from 2.8% in June to 3.8% in September [1, 2, Starting State].
- Energy inflation accelerated sharply from 14.3% in August to 18.8% in September, providing a strong tailwind for the headline figure [Starting State].
What pushes it down
- Core inflation (excluding energy and food) remains significantly lower at 2.5%, suggesting the headline spike is narrowly driven by volatile components [Starting State].
- The resolution criterion requires a value strictly above 3.8%; a stabilization at the current high level would result in a 'No' resolution.
What would move this number most
The volatility of energy prices in October 2026 relative to the same month in 2025, which will determine if the headline figure continues its upward trajectory.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-06 |
| Base rate | 15% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 60 · 62 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-22 09:39 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted