Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate above 2.50% at its monetary policy meeting of 28–29 October 2026, with the decision announced on or before 30 October 2026?
deadline 2026-10-30
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
67%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the ECB "Monetary policy decisions" press release, published on or before 30 October 2026, sets the deposit facility rate strictly above 2.50%. A rate left unchanged, a cut, or no decision published by that date resolves No.
Verified starting state
On 10 September 2026 the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points (deposit facility from 2.25% to 2.50%, effective 16 September 2026). The ECB calendar lists the next monetary policy meeting on 28–29 October 2026. Euro area inflation was 3.2% in August 2026. Market pricing in late September implied roughly a 60–75% chance of another hike (secondary source, context only; it changes daily and is not an official forecast).
What pushes it up
- The hand-verified starting state [tier 1] confirms euro area inflation was 3.2% in August 2026, substantially above the ECB's 2.0% target.
- The ECB hiked rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 to 2.50% [tier 1], and elevated inflation driven by energy/geopolitical pressures [tier 2] maintains upward rate momentum.
- ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel publicly stated that further rate hikes are necessary to contain inflation pressures [tier 4].
What pushes it down
- CNBC [tier 2] highlights that private sector credit tightening and economic bind could slow down economic activity, reducing the need for back-to-back rate increases.
- The ECB expressed caution regarding its future policy path following the September rate increase [tier 4], suggesting a potential pause to assess lagging economic impacts.
What would move this number most
Whether October 2026 euro area inflation data and growth indicators show enough cooling to justify a pause rather than another consecutive 25 bps hike.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-30 |
| Base rate | 65% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 65 · 68 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-19 09:00 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted