Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate at its monetary policy meeting of 16-17 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-24
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
64%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the ECB "Monetary policy decisions" press release of 17 December 2026 sets the deposit facility rate strictly above the rate in force immediately before the meeting (the rate in force on 16 December 2026). A rate left unchanged, a cut, or no decision published by 24 December 2026 resolves No.
Verified starting state
ECB calendar of Governing Council meetings: monetary policy meetings on 28-29 October 2026 and 16-17 December 2026, each followed by a press conference. The ECB statistical series for the deposit facility rate shows 2.25% until 15 September 2026 and 2.50% from 16 September 2026 (decision of 10 September 2026). The 29 October 2026 decision is not known when this question is created; the question compares the December decision with the rate in force immediately before the December meeting, so it does not depend on the October outcome. No base rate has been computed for this question; the rate used will be a guessed one. The check reads the official ECB series (deposit facility rate): the rate before the meeting and the rate once the decision has taken effect (about six days after the meeting), first reading frozen.
What pushes it up
- ECB officials have explicitly flagged readiness for a rate hike at the December meeting to counter persistent inflation [2, tier 2; 6, tier 2].
- Energy price increases and geopolitically driven inflation pressures continue to push consumer prices higher [10, tier 3; 12, tier 4].
What pushes it down
- The ECB chose to pause rate increases in October 2026 to assess growth risks and market yield rises [0, tier 2; 3, tier 2].
- Concerns over euro area economic growth hitting key sectors could motivate a cautious stance or another pause [0, tier 2; 2, tier 2].
What would move this number most
Upcoming euro area inflation figures and energy price movements prior to the December 16-17 meeting.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-24 |
| Base rate | 60% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 6 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 65 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-07 15:05 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-07 15:05 64% 40 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. ECB officials have explicitly flagged readiness for a rate hike at the December meeting to counter persistent inflation [2, tier 2; 6, tier 2].
- What pushes it up. Energy price increases and geopolitically driven inflation pressures continue to push consumer prices higher [10, tier 3; 12, tier 4].
- What pushes it down. The ECB chose to pause rate increases in October 2026 to assess growth risks and market yield rises [0, tier 2; 3, tier 2].
- What pushes it down. Concerns over euro area economic growth hitting key sectors could motivate a cautious stance or another pause [0, tier 2; 2, tier 2].
- What would move this number most. Upcoming euro area inflation figures and energy price movements prior to the December 16-17 meeting.
2026-10-28 15:15 31% 1 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Recent increase to 2.50% in September 2026 indicates a recent upward bias [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. No official ECB guidance or indication of a further hike; only a speculative tier‑4 article about the October decision [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. ECB historically leaves rates unchanged at many meetings, making a raise less likely
- What would move this number most. Upcoming inflation and growth data that the ECB will assess before the December meeting