Will China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026, published by the National Bureau of Statistics on or before 2 November 2026, be at least 50.0?
deadline 2026-11-02
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
51%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the first published value of China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on or before 2 November 2026, is 50.0 or higher. A value below 50.0, or no value published by that date, resolves No. Later revisions are ignored.
Verified starting state
The National Bureau of Statistics' 2026 release calendar lists the October 2026 PMI for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 9:30 (preliminary dates, subject to adjustment). Its release for September 2026 gave a manufacturing PMI of 50.1%, up from 49.8% in August, and a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.2%. Third-party forecasts are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The official September 2026 manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, back into expansion territory from 49.8% in August [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- October manufacturing activity is subject to seasonal drag due to reduced working days during the Golden Week holiday [tier 1].
- July 2026 manufacturing data showed momentum cooling earlier in the third quarter [tier 2, article 0].
What would move this number most
Whether industrial production momentum from late Q3 sustained through the October Golden Week holiday disruption.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-02 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 50 · 52 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-26 09:00 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted