Will China's consumer price index for October 2026 rise by at least 1.0% year on year, according to the first figure published by the National Bureau of Statistics on or before 13 November 2026?
deadline 2026-11-13
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
Resolved
NO — 2026-11-09
Bureau national des statistiques de Chine, communiqué « 2026年10月份居民消费价格同比上涨0.7% » publié le 9 nov. 2026 à 09:30 (heure de Pékin) : IPC national +0,7 % sur un an en octobre 2026 (+0,0 % sur un mois) ; seuil : au moins +1,0 % sur un an, première valeur publiée ·
source
64%Asturna estimate
Probability retained for the score: 64% (estimate of 8 Nov 2026, the last one before the day of the event, 9 Nov 2026). Revisions made on or after the event day do not count towards the score.
Resolution criterion
Yes if the National Bureau of Statistics of China publishes, on or before 13 November 2026, a year-on-year change in the national consumer price index (CPI) for October 2026 of +1.0% or more (first published value, as rounded by the Bureau). A lower value, or no publication by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
For September 2026 the Bureau reported CPI +0.9% year on year, +0.2% month on month, and core CPI +1.0% year on year (to be checked against stats.gov.cn). The October release is scheduled for Monday 9 November 2026 at 09:30 Beijing time (preliminary, per the Bureau's calendar). The threshold of 1.0% is one tenth above the September reading. Forecasts are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- Core CPI was reported at 1.0% in September, indicating some underlying price stability [Starting State, tier 1]
What pushes it down
- Reuters reports that the CPI rise moderated in October, which implies a figure lower than September's 0.9% [0, tier 2]
- Multiple sources report the official NBS figure for October 2026 as 0.7% year-on-year [5, 6, 7, tier 4]
- The starting state confirms September CPI was already below the 1.0% threshold at 0.9% [Starting State, tier 1]
What would move this number most
The possibility of a reporting error in the initial news flashes or an immediate official revision by the NBS.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-13 |
| Base rate | 40% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 1 · 1 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-09 09:05 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-09 09:05 1% 27 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Core CPI was reported at 1.0% in September, indicating some underlying price stability [Starting State, tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Reuters reports that the CPI rise moderated in October, which implies a figure lower than September's 0.9% [0, tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Multiple sources report the official NBS figure for October 2026 as 0.7% year-on-year [5, 6, 7, tier 4]
- What pushes it down. The starting state confirms September CPI was already below the 1.0% threshold at 0.9% [Starting State, tier 1]
- What would move this number most. The possibility of a reporting error in the initial news flashes or an immediate official revision by the NBS.
2026-11-08 09:09 64% 20 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. September 2026 CPI was already at 0.9% YoY, just 0.1 percentage points below the required threshold [tier 1 state].
- What pushes it up. September 2026 Core CPI reached 1.0% YoY, indicating underlying price strength [tier 1 state].
- What pushes it up. Rising commodity costs have begun putting upward pressure on factory-gate inflation, which can feed into consumer prices [tier 2, article 0].
- What pushes it down. China's consumer price index has consistently lagged market forecasts due to persistent softness in broader domestic demand [tier 2, article 0].
- What pushes it down. A potential decline in volatile components like food prices (particularly pork) could keep headline CPI at 0.9% or lower despite core inflation strength.
- What would move this number most. The extent to which Golden Week holiday spending and commodity cost pass-through offset food price volatility in the October CPI calculation.
2026-11-07 09:11 64% 20 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. September 2026 CPI was 0.9%, leaving the index only 0.1 percentage points away from the threshold [1].
- What pushes it up. Core CPI for September 2026 is already at 1.0%, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressure is at the target level [1].
- What pushes it up. Factory-gate inflation (PPI) is heating up due to rising commodity costs, which often passes through to consumer prices [0].
- What pushes it up. October typically sees increased consumer spending in China due to the Golden Week holiday period.
- What pushes it down. Consumer price growth has recently lagged behind analyst forecasts, suggesting persistent weakness in domestic demand [0].
- What pushes it down. Earlier reports in 2026 indicated a slowing trend in consumer price increases [1].
- What would move this number most. The extent to which rising commodity costs and holiday spending offset the reported trend of CPI lagging behind economic forecasts.
2026-11-06 09:06 57% 17 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The September 2026 CPI reading of 0.9% is only 0.1 percentage points away from the target threshold [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Core CPI for September 2026 is already at 1.0%, indicating that underlying price pressures are at the threshold level [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Rising commodity costs are driving up factory-gate inflation (PPI), which can eventually pass through to consumer prices [tier 2, article 0].
- What pushes it down. The September CPI of 0.9% was reported to have lagged analyst forecasts, suggesting that domestic demand remains weaker than expected [tier 2, article 0].
- What pushes it down. Earlier reports from August indicated a slowing trend in consumer price growth [tier 2, article 1].
- What would move this number most. The strength of consumer demand during the October Golden Week holiday period and whether it was sufficient to offset persistent deflationary pressures.
2026-11-03 09:14 64% 9 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. September 2026 CPI came in at +0.9% YoY, only 0.1 percentage points below the 1.0% threshold [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. September 2026 Core CPI was already at +1.0% YoY, reflecting steady underlying price pressures [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Factory-gate inflation and commodity costs have been rising according to mid-October reports, which often feeds into retail prices [tier 2].
- What pushes it up. October includes the Golden Week holiday period, which typically boosts travel, hospitality, and service sector prices relative to September [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Overall domestic consumer demand in China has remained modest throughout 2026, limiting persistent inflationary spikes [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. Potential softness or declines in food prices (such as pork) could offset non-food price gains, keeping headline CPI at or below +0.9% [tier 2].
- What would move this number most. The extent to which October Golden Week tourism and leisure spending passed through to retail service prices versus offset from food prices.
2026-11-01 12:00 63% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. The official hand-verified starting state shows September 2026 CPI reached +0.9% YoY and core CPI reached +1.0% YoY, leaving headline inflation only 0.1 percentage points below the 1.0% target [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Energy and industrial goods price increases observed leading into October support modest upward pressure on consumer prices [tier 4, corroborated by tier 1 state].
- What pushes it down. China's consumer demand has experienced persistent softness in recent quarters, which risks keeping headline CPI below 1.0% due to sluggish retail discounting or food price drag [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Unfavorable base effects from October 2025 could suppress the YoY comparison despite stable month-on-month figures [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Month-on-month food and energy price fluctuations during October 2026 relative to October 2025 base effects.
Post-mortem
Now that this question is resolved, each revision can be scored against the actual outcome.
| 2026-11-01 12:00 | gemini-3.5-flash | 63% | 0.397 |
| 2026-11-03 09:14 | gemini-3.6-flash | 64% | 0.41 |
| 2026-11-06 09:06 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 57% | 0.325 |
| 2026-11-07 09:11 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 64% | 0.41 |
| 2026-11-08 09:09 | gemini-3.5-flash | 64% | 0.41 |
| 2026-11-09 09:05 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 1% | 0 |
- gemini-3.5-flash — n=2, average Brier score 0.403
- gemini-3.6-flash — n=1, average Brier score 0.41
- gemini-3-flash-preview — n=3, average Brier score 0.245
Sample still too small to draw a general pattern from (rule of thumb: n≈40) — this table states facts, it does not conclude anything.