Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate at its October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, with the decision announced on or before 31 October 2026?
deadline 2026-10-31
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
12%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Bank of Japan announces, on or before 31 October 2026, a policy interest rate (uncollateralized overnight call rate target) above 1.25% following its October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting. A rate kept at 1.25% or lowered, or no decision announced by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% on 18 September 2026 (7-2 vote, per Trading Economics). Third-party calendars (Trading Economics, days.to) list the next decision on 30 October 2026; the date has not been confirmed on the Bank's own 2026 schedule, which is why the question is worded as 'announced on or before 31 October 2026'. Forecasts seen before the September hike are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- BOJ Governor Ueda warned that inflation cannot be allowed to rise further as underlying inflation reaches target levels [tier 2].
- The central bank has flagged that further interest rate increases will be needed as price pressures build [tier 2].
What pushes it down
- Reuters reported on October 20 that BOJ sources expect the bank to stand pat on interest rates at the October meeting [tier 2].
- Market expectations reflect low odds of an October rate increase, and Governor Ueda has done little to challenge those market bets [tier 2].
- The BOJ just raised its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% at its previous meeting on September 18, 2026 [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether extreme yen weakness or an unexpected surge in economic data forces the BOJ into a surprise back-to-back rate hike.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-31 |
| Base rate | 15% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 12 · 12 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-25 09:00 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted