Will the Bank of Japan raise its short-term policy rate at its December 2026 monetary policy meeting?
deadline 2026-12-24
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
68%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Bank of Japan statement released at the end of its December 2026 monetary policy meeting sets the short-term policy rate (the target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate) strictly above the level in force immediately before that meeting. A rate left unchanged, a cut, or no decision published by 24 December 2026 resolves No.
Verified starting state
Reuters poll published 20 October 2026 (reproduced by GV Wire): 54 of 78 economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its rate to 1.50% by the end of the quarter, about 80% of those who named a month choosing December and about 2% October; the report gives the current rate as 1.25% after hikes in June and September. The two-day October meeting ends on 30 October 2026 and no hike is expected there. A press poll is an opinion, not a fact. The exact date of the December meeting is not given in the source and must be read on the Bank of Japan calendar. The question compares the December decision with the rate in force immediately before that meeting, so it does not depend on the October outcome. No base rate has been computed for this question; the rate used will be a guessed one. The check is manual (central bank press release).
What pushes it up
- A Reuters poll published 20 October 2026 reported that 54 of 78 surveyed economists expect a hike to 1.50% by end-Q4, with roughly 80% of those naming December as the timing [tier 1].
- At the 30 October meeting, the Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25% as expected but explicitly guided toward further tightening and declared its 2% inflation target met after 13 years [tier 2, articles 4, 5, 6].
- Reporting highlights that the Bank of Japan aims to maintain a quarterly tightening cadence following rate hikes in June and September, positioning December 2026 as the scheduled window [tier 2, article 9].
What pushes it down
- Economist forecasts and forward guidance are statements of intent rather than fixed commitments, and central banks frequently pause when global financial or macro conditions fluctuate [tier 1].
- Recent appreciation and safe-haven demand for the yen reduce imported inflation pressure, which could give the Bank of Japan leeway to delay the next hike into early 2027 [tier 2, articles 1, 3, 7].
What would move this number most
Whether renewed yen strength or unexpected volatility in global markets before mid-December leads the Bank of Japan to postpone tightening until the January 2027 meeting.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-24 |
| Base rate | 35% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 7 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 68 · 68 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-07 20:05 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-07 20:05 68% 57 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. A Reuters poll published 20 October 2026 reported that 54 of 78 surveyed economists expect a hike to 1.50% by end-Q4, with roughly 80% of those naming December as the timing [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. At the 30 October meeting, the Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25% as expected but explicitly guided toward further tightening and declared its 2% inflation target met after 13 years [tier 2, articles 4, 5, 6].
- What pushes it up. Reporting highlights that the Bank of Japan aims to maintain a quarterly tightening cadence following rate hikes in June and September, positioning December 2026 as the scheduled window [tier 2, article 9].
- What pushes it down. Economist forecasts and forward guidance are statements of intent rather than fixed commitments, and central banks frequently pause when global financial or macro conditions fluctuate [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Recent appreciation and safe-haven demand for the yen reduce imported inflation pressure, which could give the Bank of Japan leeway to delay the next hike into early 2027 [tier 2, articles 1, 3, 7].
- What would move this number most. Whether renewed yen strength or unexpected volatility in global markets before mid-December leads the Bank of Japan to postpone tightening until the January 2027 meeting.
2026-10-29 20:04 62% 7 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. The Reuters poll (hand‑verified tier 1) shows 69% of economists expect a rate increase by end‑Q4, with about 80% picking December as the month.
- What pushes it up. The September 2026 hike of 25 bps (reported by FT, tier 2) indicates the BoJ is in a tightening cycle.
- What pushes it down. A CNBC survey (tier 2) predicts the BoJ will hold rates at its upcoming October meeting, suggesting a possible pause before December.
- What would move this number most. Future inflation readings and the BoJ’s assessment of price‑stability risks could alter the December decision.