Will the Bank of England raise Bank Rate at its Monetary Policy Committee decision announced on 5 November 2026?
deadline 2026-11-06
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
42%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Bank of England announces, on or before 6 November 2026, a Bank Rate above 3.75% following its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting (scheduled for 5 November 2026). A Bank Rate held at 3.75% or lowered, or no decision announced by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The Bank of England's website states that the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026 and that the next announcement is on 5 November 2026. Market-pricing figures seen on third-party sites were not verified and are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The Financial Times reports that the Bank of England is prepared to raise rates in November if energy prices remain high [0, tier 2]
- City AM suggests a rate hike is likely to counteract inflationary pressures potentially stemming from the Budget [3, tier 4]
- General consumer-facing financial press indicates an expectation of rising rates for savers [2, tier 4]
What pushes it down
- A Reuters poll previously indicated the MPC would show patience with inflation, which was validated by the hold in September [1, tier 2]
- The Bank of England officially held the Bank Rate at 3.75% during its most recent meeting on 17 September 2026, demonstrating a current preference for stability [tier 1]
What would move this number most
The volatility of energy prices and the specific fiscal impact of the upcoming Budget on inflation expectations.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-06 |
| Base rate | 20% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 38 · 45 (spread 7 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-24 20:00 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted