Will the Bank of England raise its policy interest rate at its December 2026 meeting, with the decision announced on or before 17 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-17
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
43%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Bank of England announces, on or before 17 December 2026, a Bank Rate higher than the one in force immediately before its December 2026 meeting. A rate kept unchanged or lowered, or no decision announced by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
Bank Rate stood at 3.75% as of 31 October 2026, held at the 17 September 2026 meeting by a 6-3 vote with three members voting for a hike to 4% (per third-party calendar pages; to be checked against the Bank of England). The MPC decisions are scheduled for 5 November and 17 December 2026 (third-party calendars). The question is about a rise at the December meeting relative to the rate in force just before it, so a November move does not decide it. Forecasts are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously (9-0) to raise the Bank Rate to 4% in November, representing a significant hawkish shift from the 6-3 vote to hold in September [3, Starting State].
- Inflation is projected to reach 4.9%, which is more than double the Bank of England's 2% target, exerting strong pressure for further policy tightening [3].
- The November hike was the first in three years, which often signals the start of a multi-meeting hiking cycle rather than a single adjustment [0, 1].
What pushes it down
- The MPC may prefer to pause in December to assess the economic impact of the first rate hike in three years before committing to further increases [0, 1].
- Historical precedent suggests that central banks sometimes space out initial hikes in a new cycle to avoid excessive market volatility or over-tightening [0].
What would move this number most
The specific consumer price index (CPI) and labor market data releases scheduled between the November and December meetings.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-17 |
| Base rate | 35% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 40 · 45 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-09 15:00 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-09 15:00 43% 13 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously (9-0) to raise the Bank Rate to 4% in November, representing a significant hawkish shift from the 6-3 vote to hold in September [3, Starting State].
- What pushes it up. Inflation is projected to reach 4.9%, which is more than double the Bank of England's 2% target, exerting strong pressure for further policy tightening [3].
- What pushes it up. The November hike was the first in three years, which often signals the start of a multi-meeting hiking cycle rather than a single adjustment [0, 1].
- What pushes it down. The MPC may prefer to pause in December to assess the economic impact of the first rate hike in three years before committing to further increases [0, 1].
- What pushes it down. Historical precedent suggests that central banks sometimes space out initial hikes in a new cycle to avoid excessive market volatility or over-tightening [0].
- What would move this number most. The specific consumer price index (CPI) and labor market data releases scheduled between the November and December meetings.
2026-10-31 16:14 30% 5 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Speculative articles ask whether the BoE will raise rates in 2026 or in Q4, indicating market expectation of a possible hike [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. The most recent September 2026 meeting kept the rate at 3.75% despite a 6‑3 vote, showing a tendency to hold [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. All available commentary is tier‑4 speculation without corroboration from tier‑1 or tier‑2 sources, which weakens any upward signal [tier 4]
- What would move this number most. Future inflation trends and the outcome of the November 5 meeting, which will set the rate level ahead of the December decision