Will Apple report total net sales above $113 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 (quarter ended September 2026), in its release published on or before 3 November 2026?
deadline 2026-11-03
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
56%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Apple's press release "Apple reports fourth quarter results" for fiscal 2026, published on or before 3 November 2026, reports total net sales above $113.0 billion. Only the figure in that first release counts; later restatements are ignored. A reported figure of $113.0 billion or less, or no release by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
Apple has announced that it will report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on Monday, 2 November 2026 (relayed by MacDailyNews and Mactrast, 7 October 2026). On its July 2026 call, the CFO guided September-quarter total revenue growth of 9% to 11% year over year. Apple's fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was $102.5 billion (Apple press release, 30 October 2025), so the guidance implies roughly $111.7 to $113.8 billion. The $113 billion threshold sits in the upper part of that range.
What pushes it up
- Apple CFO guided fiscal Q4 2026 total revenue growth of 9% to 11% YoY, placing the upper bound of expected revenue at approximately $113.8 billion, which is above the $113.0 billion threshold [1].
- Apple has a historical tendency to meet or exceed the upper end of its quarterly guidance ranges during major autumn product launch cycles [1].
What pushes it down
- Reaching $113.0 billion requires YoY growth of at least 10.24%, which is in the upper half of the CFO's 9% to 11% guidance range [1].
- Any potential foreign exchange headwinds or product supply constraints could hold revenue closer to the guided midpoint of $112.75 billion (10.0% growth) or lower [1].
What would move this number most
Whether Apple's actual revenue growth in the quarter ended September 2026 comes in above 10.24% YoY (the upper half of its guided 9% to 11% range).
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-11-03 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 55 · 57 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-25 12:01 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Probability history
2026-10-25 12:01 56% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. Apple CFO guided fiscal Q4 2026 total revenue growth of 9% to 11% YoY, placing the upper bound of expected revenue at approximately $113.8 billion, which is above the $113.0 billion threshold [1].
- What pushes it up. Apple has a historical tendency to meet or exceed the upper end of its quarterly guidance ranges during major autumn product launch cycles [1].
- What pushes it down. Reaching $113.0 billion requires YoY growth of at least 10.24%, which is in the upper half of the CFO's 9% to 11% guidance range [1].
- What pushes it down. Any potential foreign exchange headwinds or product supply constraints could hold revenue closer to the guided midpoint of $112.75 billion (10.0% growth) or lower [1].
- What would move this number most. Whether Apple's actual revenue growth in the quarter ended September 2026 comes in above 10.24% YoY (the upper half of its guided 9% to 11% range).
2026-10-24 12:00 67% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. Apple CFO guided September-quarter total revenue growth of 9% to 11% year-over-year, which translates to a revenue range of $111.7 billion to $113.8 billion, putting the upper end above the $113.0 billion threshold [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Apple historically tends to guide conservatively and frequently delivers results at or above the upper end of its guided growth ranges [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. The target threshold of $113.0 billion requires YoY revenue growth of at least 10.25%, which lies in the upper half of the 9% to 11% guidance range [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Unfavorable foreign exchange movements or supply chain bottlenecks during the initial iPhone launch phase could limit revenue growth closer to the guidance midpoint of $112.75 billion [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether iPhone 18 initial sales and services revenue growth during September 2026 exceed 10.25% year-over-year to push revenue above $113.0 billion.