Will the Northrop Grumman Cygnus NG-25 (NASA CRS-25) cargo spacecraft lift off on or before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
87%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if NASA or Northrop Grumman confirm that the Cygnus spacecraft of the NASA Northrop Grumman CRS-25 (NG-25) mission has lifted off, on any launch vehicle, on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 UTC. A scrubbed or postponed attempt without liftoff, or an announced launch date after that time, does not count. No liftoff by that time resolves No.
Verified starting state
NASA's event page for NASA's Northrop Grumman CRS-25 lists the launch as No Earlier Than Fall 2026, without a specific date, time or launch vehicle. A third-party tracker (Next Spaceflight, tier 3, context only) lists NG-25 as No Earlier Than November 2026 on a Falcon 9 from SLC-40, Cape Canaveral. No official launch date has been read in a NASA or Northrop Grumman source. No base rate has been computed for this question; the rate used will be a guessed one.
What pushes it up
- NASA formally issued media accreditation invitations on 2026-11-02 for the CRS-25 resupply launch, indicating liftoff preparations are in final stages and targeted for the coming weeks [0, tier 1].
- Targeting a Fall / November 2026 window leaves nearly two months of schedule buffer before the 31 December 2026 cutoff [0, tier 1; Hand-verified starting state, tier 1].
What pushes it down
- A formal specific launch date and time has not yet been finalized, leaving scheduling vulnerability to range or vehicle delays [Hand-verified starting state, tier 1].
- ISS visiting vehicle traffic congestion, weather, or Falcon 9 turnaround delays can easily cause multi-week slips that could push liftoff into January 2027 [Hand-verified starting state, tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether ISS docking port traffic or launch vehicle readiness forces a delay exceeding seven weeks into early 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 82 · 92 (spread 10 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-07 15:03 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-07 15:03 87% 2 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. NASA formally issued media accreditation invitations on 2026-11-02 for the CRS-25 resupply launch, indicating liftoff preparations are in final stages and targeted for the coming weeks [0, tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Targeting a Fall / November 2026 window leaves nearly two months of schedule buffer before the 31 December 2026 cutoff [0, tier 1; Hand-verified starting state, tier 1].
- What pushes it down. A formal specific launch date and time has not yet been finalized, leaving scheduling vulnerability to range or vehicle delays [Hand-verified starting state, tier 1].
- What pushes it down. ISS visiting vehicle traffic congestion, weather, or Falcon 9 turnaround delays can easily cause multi-week slips that could push liftoff into January 2027 [Hand-verified starting state, tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Whether ISS docking port traffic or launch vehicle readiness forces a delay exceeding seven weeks into early 2027.
2026-10-26 12:04 63% 1 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. NASA event page lists launch window as Fall 2026, which includes dates up to 31 Dec 2026 (tier 1)
- What pushes it down. Only a “no‑earlier‑than” statement, no firm date or vehicle confirmed (tier 1); Cygnus launches have been delayed in the past (general knowledge)
- What would move this number most. An official confirmed launch date and vehicle before the end of 2026 would shift the estimate sharply